Every year, 2UP offers are showing up, especially when the new season is starting (I’m referring to football season). These promotions have the scope to attract new customer or to keep “entertained” the current ones. For last couple of seasons, the main players for this 2 Up promotion are Bet365 and Paddy Power.
In this guide, I’m going to explain how you can exploit the 2-up offer, what are the different 2-up strategies you can use and I will share my tips & tricks for making the most of these promotions.
Again, keep in mind, everything is written below is through the perspective of my own experience and before you go ahead ensure you’ve read the disclaimer.
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Table of Contents
a) What Are the Basics of 2Up Offer?
The 2-up offer works when the team you’ve bet on goes two goals in front of their opponent, you will be paid out by the bookmaker. The premise is relatively simple: you bet on your favorite team whose back and lay odds are extremely close or, ideally, an exact match and you hope that they go two goals in the lead.
One of the reasons why 2UP offers have such huge potential is because if your team then fails to actually get the victory, your lay bet will win as well as your early payout on the bookmaker side.
For example, you can have 0 qualifying losses, if you got an exact odds match and 0% commission on your exchange market. Overall, in long term, you are going to have a +EV for this offer.
Note: This offer is not a standard “Bet X, Get Y” free bet offer. It is a more advanced offer that requires perspicuity and patience to have a constant stream of profit.
This means you’re likely to have periods where your team regularly doesn’t go two goals in front and therefore your profit is close to zero. However, when your team does go two goals in front, your profit can be significant, thousands if your bankroll has the appropriate size.
b) How Can You Profit from 2UP Offers?
Basically, are two type of strategies which can be applied to take advantage of Bet365 and PaddyPower 2UP offers:
1) Letting It Ride Strategy
This strategy is a really straightforward strategy; is simple, but has an extremely high variance. However, the profits can be really significant when you hit the criteria for this offer.
For example, you back a team for £100 at odds of 4.0 and lay them at 4.0. The exchange market’s commission is 0%, therefore your qualifying loss is £0. After backing and laying your bets, basically, you can just hope and wait for you profit to come in.
If your team goes 2-0 up but still wins, you make nothing and lose nothing. If they don’t go 2 goals in front, you make nothing and lose nothing. However, if your team does go 2-0 up and then draws or loses, you would make £400 profit, breakdown in £300 from the bookmaker side and £100 from the exchange market.
This approach has the highest ROI (return of investment): low effort, maxim reward. But, also has the least consistency by far. In real situation, you can expect long stretches of no profits and some small qualifying losses before you will have a profit. Will be a considerable profit, but the key here is consistency, which this strategy has no guarantee of that.
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2) Locking In a Profit Strategy
This strategy is the most used between matched bettors and involves a so called lock-in method. To understand better, let’s talk around the previous example.
You’ve bet £100 at 4.0 and laid at 4.0 with 0% commission. Your backed team goes 2-0 up just inside the second half which makes the odds for the win to move down to 1.16. Using the “Early Payout Calculator” (can be found at Odds Monkey), we input our initial bet stakes and current odds.
As the calculator instructs, we could now back our team again via the exchange market with a stake of £347.51 and generate £52.99 in guaranteed profit by doing so. At first glance seems like a really large stake on top of the already large liability.
This is because the stake will actually subtract from your liability on the bet, as you can’t win and lose the same bet in same time. This can be translated as you don’t really need extra money in your exchange in order to generate your profit.
Going a step further, for example sake, lets have a scenario where we didn’t lock-in at 2-0 and we waited for the opposition to pull the score back to 2-1. Their odds are now 1.65. After a recalculation, with these new odds, we could now lock-in a healthy £154.93 in profit.
However, I would recommend, the beginners (which most of the times will have a small bankrolls) to look for lock in at 2-0. Is a bankroll booster. But, for those with slightly larger bankrolls (and more experience), waiting until 2-1 (or even 2-2) may be more favourable scenario.
Keep in mind that EV is not significant changed when you’re paying 0% commission, but locking in earlier has a lower EV when you’re paying commission due to larger exchange stakes.
c) Tips for Taking Advantage of 2UP Offers
- Avoid Heavy Odds-On Favourites – Everybody knows that a uneven match (with heavy favourites) is likely to go 2-0 up more often. However, using these matches can require bigger stakes in order to generate a significant profit.
Let’s say that you bet £100 at odds of 1.15, would only return £15 in profit. Another aspect to consider is that whilst they might be heavy favourites to go 2-up, they’re extremely unlikely to end up drawing or losing which makes the ‘letting it ride’ strategy unusable.
As mentioned before, if you wanted to lock-in at 2-0, the odds on the these kind of teams are going to be under 1.05 which will bring you a really small profit. Therefore, I would recommend trying to use 2UP offers for matches where you can get on the underdog, or where two teams are similar match-ups.
- Exploit the pre Saved Oddsmatcher Filters – My favourite odds matcher platform, Odds Monkey has a pre saved odds matcher filter for each league or competition that you want to bet on under the 2UP offer.
Or, maybe, you want to have your own personalized filter for these type of offers on main leagues. Is up to you. On either case, important part is that you turn email notifications on. This means you’ll be notified via email for every single odds match that lands in your odds matcher filter.
I know being bombarded by emails can be annoying, but you are going to be able to jump on the bets as the notification come in. Below you can see an example for using an odds matcher filter – in this case is my first ever setup.
The instruction is: Pick Match Odds market in Limit Markets. Choose the Bookmakers in Limit Bookmakers: most of the times is Bet365 or Paddy Power . Pick the Exchanges, in our case was Smarkets and Betfair. Look for Premier League in Search Text Filter. Add Match Rating to 99%+. Back Odds above 1.6 and filter the Event Time to up to 3 days. Now, just SAVE IT.
- Be always vigilant and consistent – Always look for good odds and try to take advantage of it, even by mobile – if you are comfortable with the mobile app. Exploiting this offers, but remember to try not to jeopardise your account health too much.
Also, avoid taking arbs, and don’t take them too early in advance. From my experience, I can say that you can get good matches on Weekends, especially on Saturday afternoons. Remember, you should always adjust your stakes on competition and try to stick with main competitions due to a better level of liquidity.